London conference on Yemen tackles root causes of terrorism

By Camille Tawil in London
For Al-Shorfa.com
2010-01-28

[BEN STANSALL/AFP/Getty Images] Yemen's Minister of Foreign Affairs Abu Bakr al-Qirbi at London conference on Yemen.

A meeting on Yemen that took place in London on Wednesday (January 27th) set in motion a "different attempt" to help the Yemeni government deal with the multiple challenges it faces. These challenges include the growing threat of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the Houthi rebellion in the north, the disturbances caused by the separatists in the south, and other problems that Yemen is facing economically.

This meeting is "different" from past ones because it seems to be the first time that pledges were made to treat the "root causes" of the crisis, as opposed to just treating the symptoms.

"The assault on Yemen's problems cannot begin and end with its security challenges and its counter-terrorism strategy," British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said. "In tackling terrorism, it is vital to tackle its root causes. In Yemen's case, these are manifold - economic, social and political."

The participants, including top diplomats from Britain, the United States, Russia and Arab Gulf nations, agreed that military operations are not enough to confront al-Qaeda, the Houthis and the separatists. They said fighting terrorism requires significant reforms that will guarantee transparency in the state's institutions. Such reforms will build trust in the state on the part of Yemeni citizens and foreign donors and will remove the obstacles that have prevented Yemen from receiving much needed financial aid to jumpstart its crumbling economy and create job opportunities. Yemenis are suffering from a high rate of unemployment, estimated at 40%. A sizable number are living below the poverty level. One half of the population lives on less than $2 a day.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for an urgent meeting on Yemen just days after the failed attempt to blow up a US passenger plane over the city of Detroit on Christmas Day 2009. Al-Qaeda in Yemen claimed responsibility for the attack, committed by a Nigerian, Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab. The timing of the British call indicates Western acknowledgment of the threat of Yemen becoming a centre for al-Qaeda activity especially in regions that are outside the control of the central government. The Christmas bombing attempt was not the first time terrorist operations and killings were linked to al-Qaeda in Yemen.

But although last month's attempted bombing highlighted the increasing danger of al-Qaeda in Yemen, it was not the only motivation for holding the summit. Yemen faces a serious economic crisis that has to be addressed before it is too late.

Yemen is losing a large portion of oil revenue that it had reaped in the past. Oil exports fell from around 400,000 barrels a day to a current total of between 250,000 and 280,000 barrels. This figure is expected to continue to drop until the oil wells dry out in the coming years. No new oil reserves have been found, and the export of gas does not compensate for the loss in oil revenue.

In addition to declining oil resources, water reserves could also dry out in the next few years which will affect any agricultural efforts to stimulate the economy. Yemen has the largest population in the Gulf with 23 million inhabitants. The population is growing rapidly, and some expect the numbers to double in the next few years.

Against this dark backdrop, it was not surprising to see the British conclude that instead of concentrating only on "symptoms" such as al-Qaeda, the Houthi and the separatists, there is a dire need to remedy the situation at the source by stimulating the economy before it is too late.

But there are major obstacles standing in the way of any initiative in this regard, specifically the fear of corruption in Yemeni institutions and the perceived lack of competence in managing financial aid. That was the main reason why Yemen never received the majority of a promised $5 billion in aid offered by Arab and Western donors during a similar 2006 meeting in London. Funds that were allocated to Yemen are still on hold and were not transferred because some Western donors refused to offer a blank check without being sure if the money donated will be rightfully spent.

This was one of the major points that meeting participants tried to resolve before announcing any new commitments to Yemen. The potential donors probably feared a negative Yemeni reaction to linking aid with reforms, but it seems the Yemeni position surprised them all.

The Yemeni delegation, mainly represented by Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Mojawwar and Minister of Foreign Affairs Abu Bakr al-Qirbi, arrived with a comprehensive 10-point reform plan. The plan included a detailed description of the problems that are obstructing the work of Yemeni institutions and a detailed plan for fixing them. These reforms will be included during negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. An IMF agreement on these reforms would open the door for aid to start flowing into Yemen.

Although it is not clear how long it will take to decide on these reforms, it is certain that things will move fast in the coming period. A new meeting has been scheduled in Riyadh for Arab and foreign donors in late February to be followed by another meeting of the "Friends of Yemen" grouping in March. These meetings will most likely determine the course and speed of aid to Yemen.

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