Al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula poses real danger to international community

Analysis by Camille Al-Tawil in London
For Al-Shorfa.com
2009-12-30

[AFP/Getty Images] Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula members address a crowd in rural area of Abyan province.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's claim of responsibility for an attempt to blow up an American passenger plane during its journey from Amsterdam to Detroit last Friday (December 25th) casts fresh light on the danger presented by this organisation which has made Yemen its headquarters.

Despite the failure of the operation undertaken by the young Nigerian, Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, the direct link to the Al-Qaeda branch in the Arabian Peninsula confirms that this branch of Osama bin Laden's organisation has now begun to expand outside of its traditional activities which were confined to the Gulf region.

A two-page statement from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula posted on websites that usually publish statements from the group indicated that operatives in its "production department" had succeeded in constructing "a technologically advanced device, which has been tested and its effectiveness proven. It has also passed through detection equipment. Seeking martyrdom, Umar reached his target by the grace of God. But by God's decree a technical fault occurred which led to the failure of the explosion. With God's permission, we will continue on our path until we achieve our aim. All religion belongs to God."

The statement seems to validate claims made by Abdul Mutallab after his arrest, when he told American investigators that Al-Qaeda in Yemen gave him the explosive device. The Nigerian reportedly said the device was made from the highly powerful PETN substance, which he concealed in his underwear. This material can be detonated once it has been mixed with another liquid.

This operation, targeting an American civil airplane carrying 278 passengers and 11crew, was the second outside of Yemen in which Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has been involved.

A similar operation last August targeted the Saudi Deputy Interior Minister in charge of counter terrorism, Prince Muhammad bin Nayef. Abdullah Hassan Al Aseery, a member of the terrorist group, blew himself up only a few feet away from Prince Muhammad, having requested a meeting with him in his palace in Jeddah. The suicide bomber claimed that he wanted to surrender himself to the Saudi Arabian authorities, and was taken from Yemen to meet the Saudi official.

However, he was actually concealing an explosive device – similar to Abdul Mutallab 's device – in his underwear, which was triggered remotely by telephone. Prince Muhammad was injured, although not seriously. This operation was of real security interest at the time as the bomber was able to pass through numerous checkpoints – including travelling by airplane – without any security screening devices detecting the bomb inside his clothing.

However, the attempt to blow up an American passenger plane seems to come with a different context than the attempted targeting of the Saudi prince.

It comes just days after the strike against Al-Qaeda in Abyan province, when an aerial bombardment undertaken by Yemeni forces led to the deaths of around 50 people, among whom are believed to have been a number of senior Al-Qaeda field commanders. Saeed Ali al-Shihri, the Saudi Arabian field commander who had been released from Guantanamo Bay prison in Cuba and repatriated by American Forces, could have been among the dead.

After his release, al-Shihri secretly travelled to Yemen where he announced the unification of the Al-Qaeda branches in Saudi Arabia and Yemen under the leadership of Nasser Al-Wahayshi (Abu Basir) in January 2009. The unification of the two branches was completed under the authority of Al-Wahayshi, who had escaped from prison in Sanaa in 2006 with a number of other prisoners affiliated to Al-Qaeda. Sanaa had received him from Iran, where he was originally arrested.

Since this unification a year ago, there has been a marked increase in Al-Qaeda's activities in Yemen.

It seems that the organisation has exploited President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s government's pre-occupation with fighting the Houthi rebels, and also with fighting the escalating activities of the separatist movement in southern Yemen, known as the Southern Movement. While this was happening, Al-Qaeda established strong relations with a number of tribes who agreed to allow Al-Qaeda operatives to move freely within their areas.

But the Sanaa government, despite its preoccupation with the Houthi and Southern threats, has not been completely unaware of Al-Qaeda's increasing activities, nor of its alliances with these tribes. Last summer this matter compelled the Yemeni President to deliver a public warning to the tribes which were protecting the organisation's operatives.

Perhaps Al-Qaeda's tribal alliances in Yemen were the impetus that compelled President Saleh's government to resort to directing an air strike against suspected Al-Qaeda locations, rather than sending soldiers to arrest or kill the suspects.

In an indication that its operatives could be residing in tribal areas, the Al-Qaeda statement following the airstrike spoke of the death of around 50 people in the area of the Bakazim tribes in the village of Al-Maajala in Abyan. The statement also said that the air strike targeting Abyan coincided with another attack targeting the area of the Arhab tribes in Sanaa province. It remains to be seen whether this statement aims to incite these two tribes, or serves as a confirmation that the organisation's operatives are taking shelter in their areas.

Whatever the truth of the relationship between Al-Qaeda and the Yemeni tribes, it is certain that the Sanaa government, and the governments of the region, cannot ignore the activities of the Al-Qaeda's branch in Yemen for long. It is too close to both the anarchic areas in Somalia where the Al-Qaeda loyalist group, the movement of al-Shabab al-Mujahideen, is active, and to the oil wells of the Gulf. As is evident from the attempted bombing of the American airplane a few days ago, the organisation is not far from the United States either.

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